Robust language-based mental health assessments in time and space through social media.

In the most comprehensive population surveys, mental health is only broadly captured through questionnaires asking about "mentally unhealthy days" or feelings of "sadness." Further, population mental health estimates are predominantly consolidated to yearly estimates at the state level, which is considerably coarser than the best estimates of physical health. Through the large-scale analysis of social media, robust estimation of population mental health is feasible at finer resolutions. In this study, we created a pipeline that used ~1 billion Tweets from 2 million geo-located users to estimate mental health levels and changes for depression and anxiety, the two leading mental health conditions. Language-based mental health assessments (LBMHAs) had substantially higher levels of reliability across space and time than available survey measures. This work presents reliable assessments of depression and anxiety down to the county-weeks level. Where surveys were available, we found moderate to strong associations between the LBMHAs and survey scores for multiple levels of granularity, from the national level down to weekly county measurements (fixed effects ß = 0.34 to 1.82; p < 0.001). LBMHAs demonstrated temporal validity, showing clear absolute increases after a list of major societal events (+23% absolute change for depression assessments). LBMHAs showed improved external validity, evidenced by stronger correlations with measures of health and socioeconomic status than population surveys. This study shows that the careful aggregation of social media data yields spatiotemporal estimates of population mental health that exceed the granularity achievable by existing population surveys, and does so with generally greater reliability and validity.

Large language models could change the future of behavioral healthcare: a proposal for responsible development and evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) such as Open AI's GPT-4 (which power ChatGPT) and Google's Gemini, built on artificial intelligence, hold immense potential to support, augment, or even eventually automate psychotherapy. Enthusiasm about such applications is mounting in the field as well as industry. These developments promise to address insufficient mental healthcare system capacity and scale individual access to personalized treatments. However, clinical psychology is an uncommonly high stakes application domain for AI systems, as responsible and evidence-based therapy requires nuanced expertise. This paper provides a roadmap for the ambitious yet responsible application of clinical LLMs in psychotherapy. First, a technical overview of clinical LLMs is presented. Second, the stages of integration of LLMs into psychotherapy are discussed while highlighting parallels to the development of autonomous vehicle technology. Third, potential applications of LLMs in clinical care, training, and research are discussed, highlighting areas of risk given the complex nature of psychotherapy. Fourth, recommendations for the responsible development and evaluation of clinical LLMs are provided, which include centering clinical science, involving robust interdisciplinary collaboration, and attending to issues like assessment, risk detection, transparency, and bias. Lastly, a vision is outlined for how LLMs might enable a new generation of studies of evidence-based interventions at scale, and how these studies may challenge assumptions about psychotherapy.

The Cantril Ladder elicits thoughts about power and wealth.

The Cantril Ladder is among the most widely administered subjective well-being measures; every year, it is collected in 140+ countries in the Gallup World Poll and reported in the World Happiness Report. The measure asks respondents to evaluate their lives on a ladder from worst (bottom) to best (top). Prior work found Cantril Ladder scores sensitive to social comparison and to reflect one's relative position in the income distribution. To understand this, we explored how respondents interpret the Cantril Ladder. We analyzed word responses from 1581 UK adults and tested the impact of the (a) ladder imagery, (b) scale anchors of worst to best possible life, and c) bottom to top. Using three language analysis techniques (dictionary, topic, and word embeddings), we found that the Cantril Ladder framing emphasizes power and wealth over broader well-being and relationship concepts in comparison to the other study conditions. Further, altering the framings increased preferred scale levels from 8.4 to 8.9 (Cohen's d = 0.36). Introducing harmony as an anchor yielded the strongest divergence from the Cantril Ladder, reducing mentions of power and wealth topics the most (Cohen's d = -0.76). Our findings refine the understanding of historical Cantril Ladder data and may help guide the future evolution of well-being metrics and guidelines.

Characterizing empathy and compassion using computational linguistic analysis.

Many scholars have proposed that feeling what we believe others are feeling-often known as "empathy"-is essential for other-regarding sentiments and plays an important role in our moral lives. Caring for and about others (without necessarily sharing their feelings)-often known as "compassion"-is also frequently discussed as a relevant force for prosocial motivation and action. Here, we explore the relationship between empathy and compassion using the methods of computational linguistics. Analyses of 2,356,916 Facebook posts suggest that individuals (N = 2,781) high in empathy use different language than those high in compassion, after accounting for shared variance between these constructs. Empathic people, controlling for compassion, often use self-focused language and write about negative feelings, social isolation, and feeling overwhelmed. Compassionate people, controlling for empathy, often use other-focused language and write about positive feelings and social connections. In addition, high empathy without compassion is related to negative health outcomes, while high compassion without empathy is related to positive health outcomes, positive lifestyle choices, and charitable giving. Such findings favor an approach to moral motivation that is grounded in compassion rather than empathy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Filling in the white space: Spatial interpolation with Gaussian processes and social media data.

Full national coverage below the state level is difficult to attain through survey-based data collection. Even the largest survey-based data collections, such as the CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System or the Gallup-Healthways Well-being Index (both with more than 300,000 responses p.a.) only allow for the estimation of annual averages for about 260 out of roughly U.S. 3,000 counties when a threshold of 300 responses per county is used. Using a relatively high threshold of 300 responses gives substantially higher convergent validity-higher correlations with health variables-than lower thresholds but covers a reduced and biased sample of the population. We present principled methods to interpolate spatial estimates and show that including large-scale geotagged social media data can increase interpolation accuracy. In this work, we focus on Gallup-reported life satisfaction, a widely-used measure of subjective well-being. We use Gaussian Processes (GP), a formal Bayesian model, to interpolate life satisfaction, which we optimally combine with estimates from low-count data. We interpolate over several spaces (geographic and socioeconomic) and extend these evaluations to the space created by variables encoding language frequencies of approximately 6 million geotagged Twitter users. We find that Twitter language use can serve as a rough aggregate measure of socioeconomic and cultural similarity, and improves upon estimates derived from a wide variety of socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic similarity measures. We show that applying Gaussian Processes to the limited Gallup data allows us to generate estimates for a much larger number of counties while maintaining the same level of convergent validity with external criteria (i.e., N = 1,133 vs. 2,954 counties). This work suggests that spatial coverage of psychological variables can be reliably extended through Bayesian techniques while maintaining out-of-sample prediction accuracy and that Twitter language adds important information about cultural similarity over and above traditional socio-demographic and geographic similarity measures. Finally, to facilitate the adoption of these methods, we have also open-sourced an online tool that researchers can freely use to interpolate their data across geographies.

Depression and anxiety have distinct and overlapping language patterns: Results from a clinical interview.

Depression has been associated with heightened first-person singular pronoun use (I-usage; e.g., "I," "my") and negative emotion words. However, past research has relied on nonclinical samples and nonspecific depression measures, raising the question of whether these features are unique to depression vis-à-vis frequently co-occurring conditions, especially anxiety. Using structured questions about recent life changes or difficulties, we interviewed a sample of individuals with varying levels of depression and anxiety (N = 486), including individuals in a major depressive episode (n = 228) and/or diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder (n = 273). Interviews were transcribed to provide a natural language sample. Analyses isolated language features associated with gold standard, clinician-rated measures of depression and anxiety. Many language features associated with depression were in fact shared between depression and anxiety. Language markers with relative specificity to depression included I-usage, sadness, and decreased positive emotion, while negations (e.g., "not," "no"), negative emotion, and several emotional language markers (e.g., anxiety, stress, depression) were relatively specific to anxiety. Several of these results were replicated using a self-report measure designed to disentangle components of depression and anxiety. We next built machine learning models to detect severity of common and specific depression and anxiety using only interview language. Individuals' speech characteristics during this brief interview predicted their depression and anxiety severity, beyond other clinical and demographic variables. Depression and anxiety have partially distinct patterns of expression in spoken language. Monitoring of depression and anxiety severity via language can augment traditional assessment modalities and aid in early detection. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting U.S. county opioid poisoning mortality from multi-modal social media and psychological self-report data.

Opioid poisoning mortality is a substantial public health crisis in the United States, with opioids involved in approximately 75% of the nearly 1 million drug related deaths since 1999. Research suggests that the epidemic is driven by both over-prescribing and social and psychological determinants such as economic stability, hopelessness, and isolation. Hindering this research is a lack of measurements of these social and psychological constructs at fine-grained spatial and temporal resolutions. To address this issue, we use a multi-modal data set consisting of natural language from Twitter, psychometric self-reports of depression and well-being, and traditional area-based measures of socio-demographics and health-related risk factors. Unlike previous work using social media data, we do not rely on opioid or substance related keywords to track community poisonings. Instead, we leverage a large, open vocabulary of thousands of words in order to fully characterize communities suffering from opioid poisoning, using a sample of 1.5 billion tweets from 6 million U.S. county mapped Twitter users. Results show that Twitter language predicted opioid poisoning mortality better than factors relating to socio-demographics, access to healthcare, physical pain, and psychological well-being. Additionally, risk factors revealed by the Twitter language analysis included negative emotions, discussions of long work hours, and boredom, whereas protective factors included resilience, travel/leisure, and positive emotions, dovetailing with results from the psychometric self-report data. The results show that natural language from public social media can be used as a surveillance tool for both predicting community opioid poisonings and understanding the dynamic social and psychological nature of the epidemic.

Comparison of wellbeing structures based on survey responses and social media language: A network analysis.

Wellbeing is predominantly measured through surveys but is increasingly measured by analysing individuals' language on social media platforms using social media text mining (SMTM). To investigate whether the structure of wellbeing is similar across both data collection methods, we compared networks derived from survey items and social media language features collected from the same participants. The dataset was split into an independent exploration (n = 1169) and a final subset (n = 1000). After estimating exploration networks, redundant survey items and language topics were eliminated. Final networks were then estimated using exploratory graph analysis (EGA). The networks of survey items and those from language topics were similar, both consisting of five wellbeing dimensions. The dimensions in the survey- and SMTM-based assessment of wellbeing showed convergent structures congruent with theories of wellbeing. Specific dimensions found in each network reflected the unique aspects of each type of data (survey and social media language). Networks derived from both language features and survey items show similar structures. Survey and SMTM methods may provide complementary methods to understand differences in human wellbeing.

Measuring the Burden of Infodemics: Summary of the Methods and Results of the Fifth WHO Infodemic Management Conference.

Background: An infodemic is excess information, including false or misleading information, that spreads in digital and physical environments during a public health emergency. The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an unprecedented global infodemic that has led to confusion about the benefits of medical and public health interventions, with substantial impact on risk-taking and health-seeking behaviors, eroding trust in health authorities and compromising the effectiveness of public health responses and policies. Standardized measures are needed to quantify the harmful impacts of the infodemic in a systematic and methodologically robust manner, as well as harmonizing highly divergent approaches currently explored for this purpose. This can serve as a foundation for a systematic, evidence-based approach to monitoring, identifying, and mitigating future infodemic harms in emergency preparedness and prevention. Objective: In this paper, we summarize the Fifth World Health Organization (WHO) Infodemic Management Conference structure, proceedings, outcomes, and proposed actions seeking to identify the interdisciplinary approaches and frameworks needed to enable the measurement of the burden of infodemics. Methods: An iterative human-centered design (HCD) approach and concept mapping were used to facilitate focused discussions and allow for the generation of actionable outcomes and recommendations. The discussions included 86 participants representing diverse scientific disciplines and health authorities from 28 countries across all WHO regions, along with observers from civil society and global public health-implementing partners. A thematic map capturing the concepts matching the key contributing factors to the public health burden of infodemics was used throughout the conference to frame and contextualize discussions. Five key areas for immediate action were identified. Results: The 5 key areas for the development of metrics to assess the burden of infodemics and associated interventions included (1) developing standardized definitions and ensuring the adoption thereof; (2) improving the map of concepts influencing the burden of infodemics; (3) conducting a review of evidence, tools, and data sources; (4) setting up a technical working group; and (5) addressing immediate priorities for postpandemic recovery and resilience building. The summary report consolidated group input toward a common vocabulary with standardized terms, concepts, study designs, measures, and tools to estimate the burden of infodemics and the effectiveness of infodemic management interventions. Conclusions: Standardizing measurement is the basis for documenting the burden of infodemics on health systems and population health during emergencies. Investment is needed into the development of practical, affordable, evidence-based, and systematic methods that are legally and ethically balanced for monitoring infodemics; generating diagnostics, infodemic insights, and recommendations; and developing interventions, action-oriented guidance, policies, support options, mechanisms, and tools for infodemic managers and emergency program managers.

Measuring disadvantage: A systematic comparison of United States small-area disadvantage indices.

Extensive evidence demonstrates the effects of area-based disadvantage on a variety of life outcomes, such as increased mortality and low economic mobility. Despite these well-established patterns, disadvantage, often measured using composite indices, is inconsistently operationalized across studies. To address this issue, we systematically compared 5 U.S. disadvantage indices at the county-level on their relationships to 24 diverse life outcomes related to mortality, physical health, mental health, subjective well-being, and social capital from heterogeneous data sources. We further examined which domains of disadvantage are most important when creating these indices. Of the five indices examined, the Area Deprivation Index (ADI) and Child Opportunity Index 2.0 (COI) were most related to a diverse set of life outcomes, particularly physical health. Within each index, variables from the domains of education and employment were most important in relationships with life outcomes. Disadvantage indices are being used in real-world policy and resource allocation decisions; an index's generalizability across diverse life outcomes, and the domains of disadvantage which constitute the index, should be considered when guiding such decisions.

Depression and Anxiety on Twitter During the COVID-19 Stay-At-Home Period in 7 Major U.S. Cities.

Introduction: Although surveys are a well-established instrument to capture the population prevalence of mental health at a moment in time, public Twitter is a continuously available data source that can provide a broader window into population mental health. We characterized the relationship between COVID-19 case counts, stay-at-home orders because of COVID-19, and anxiety and depression in 7 major U.S. cities utilizing Twitter data. Methods: We collected 18 million Tweets from January to September 2019 (baseline) and 2020 from 7 U.S. cities with large populations and varied COVID-19 response protocols: Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Phoenix. We applied machine learning‒based language prediction models for depression and anxiety validated in previous work with Twitter data. As an alternative public big data source, we explored Google Trends data using search query frequencies. A qualitative evaluation of trends is presented. Results: Twitter depression and anxiety scores were consistently elevated above their 2019 baselines across all the 7 locations. Twitter depression scores increased during the early phase of the pandemic, with a peak in early summer and a subsequent decline in late summer. The pattern of depression trends was aligned with national COVID-19 case trends rather than with trends in individual states. Anxiety was consistently and steadily elevated throughout the pandemic. Google search trends data showed noisy and inconsistent results. Conclusions: Our study shows the feasibility of using Twitter to capture trends of depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 public health crisis and suggests that social media data can supplement survey data to monitor long-term mental health trends.

World Trade Center responders in their own words: predicting PTSD symptom trajectories with AI-based language analyses of interviews.

BACKGROUND: Oral histories from 9/11 responders to the World Trade Center (WTC) attacks provide rich narratives about distress and resilience. Artificial Intelligence (AI) models promise to detect psychopathology in natural language, but they have been evaluated primarily in non-clinical settings using social media. This study sought to test the ability of AI-based language assessments to predict PTSD symptom trajectories among responders. METHODS: Participants were 124 responders whose health was monitored at the Stony Brook WTC Health and Wellness Program who completed oral history interviews about their initial WTC experiences. PTSD symptom severity was measured longitudinally using the PTSD Checklist (PCL) for up to 7 years post-interview. AI-based indicators were computed for depression, anxiety, neuroticism, and extraversion along with dictionary-based measures of linguistic and interpersonal style. Linear regression and multilevel models estimated associations of AI indicators with concurrent and subsequent PTSD symptom severity (significance adjusted by false discovery rate). RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, greater depressive language (ß = 0.32; p = 0.049) and first-person singular usage (ß = 0.31; p = 0.049) were associated with increased symptom severity. Longitudinally, anxious language predicted future worsening in PCL scores (ß = 0.30; p = 0.049), whereas first-person plural usage (ß = -0.36; p = 0.014) and longer words usage (ß = -0.35; p = 0.014) predicted improvement. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate the value of AI in understanding PTSD in a vulnerable population. Future studies should extend this application to other trauma exposures and to other demographic groups, especially under-represented minorities.

Regional personality assessment through social media language.

OBJECTIVE: We explore the personality of counties as assessed through linguistic patterns on social media. Such studies were previously limited by the cost and feasibility of large-scale surveys; however, language-based computational models applied to large social media datasets now allow for large-scale personality assessment. METHOD: We applied a language-based assessment of the five factor model of personality to 6,064,267 U.S. Twitter users. We aggregated the Twitter-based personality scores to 2,041 counties and compared to political, economic, social, and health outcomes measured through surveys and by government agencies. RESULTS: There was significant personality variation across counties. Openness to experience was higher on the coasts, conscientiousness was uniformly spread, extraversion was higher in southern states, agreeableness was higher in western states, and emotional stability was highest in the south. Across 13 outcomes, language-based personality estimates replicated patterns that have been observed in individual-level and geographic studies. This includes higher Republican vote share in less agreeable counties and increased life satisfaction in more conscientious counties. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that regions vary in their personality and that these differences can be studied through computational linguistic analysis of social media. Furthermore, these methods may be used to explore other psychological constructs across geographies.

The relationship between text message sentiment and self-reported depression.

BACKGROUND: Personal sensing has shown promise for detecting behavioral correlates of depression, but there is little work examining personal sensing of cognitive and affective states. Digital language, particularly through personal text messages, is one source that can measure these markers. METHODS: We correlated privacy-preserving sentiment analysis of text messages with self-reported depression symptom severity. We enrolled 219 U.S. adults in a 16 week longitudinal observational study. Participants installed a personal sensing app on their phones, which administered self-report PHQ-8 assessments of their depression severity, collected phone sensor data, and computed anonymized language sentiment scores from their text messages. We also trained machine learning models for predicting end-of-study self-reported depression status using on blocks of phone sensor and text features. RESULTS: In correlation analyses, we find that degrees of depression, emotional, and personal pronoun language categories correlate most strongly with self-reported depression, validating prior literature. Our classification models which predict binary depression status achieve a leave-one-out AUC of 0.72 when only considering text features and 0.76 when combining text with other networked smartphone sensors. LIMITATIONS: Participants were recruited from a panel that over-represented women, caucasians, and individuals with self-reported depression at baseline. As language use differs across demographic factors, generalizability beyond this population may be limited. The study period also coincided with the initial COVID-19 outbreak in the United States, which may have affected smartphone sensor data quality. CONCLUSIONS: Effective depression prediction through text message sentiment, especially when combined with other personal sensors, could enable comprehensive mental health monitoring and intervention.

Head versus heart: social media reveals differential language of loneliness from depression.

We study the language differentially associated with loneliness and depression using 3.4-million Facebook posts from 2986 individuals, and uncover the statistical associations of survey-based depression and loneliness with both dictionary-based (Linguistic Inquiry Word Count 2015) and open-vocabulary linguistic features (words, phrases, and topics). Loneliness and depression were found to have highly overlapping language profiles, including sickness, pain, and negative emotions as (cross-sectional) risk factors, and social relationships and activities as protective factors. Compared to depression, the language associated with loneliness reflects a stronger cognitive focus, including more references to cognitive processes (i.e., differentiation and tentative language, thoughts, and the observation of irregularities), and cognitive activities like reading and writing. As might be expected, less lonely users were more likely to reference social relationships (e.g., friends and family, romantic relationships), and use first-person plural pronouns. Our findings suggest that the mechanisms of loneliness include self-oriented cognitive activities (i.e., reading) and an overattention to the interpretation of information in the environment. These data-driven ecological findings suggest interventions for loneliness that target maladaptive social cognitions (e.g., through reframing the perception of social environments), strengthen social relationships, and treat other affective distress (i.e., depression).

Closed- and open-vocabulary approaches to text analysis: A review, quantitative comparison, and recommendations.

Technology now makes it possible to understand efficiently and at large scale how people use language to reveal their everyday thoughts, behaviors, and emotions. Written text has been analyzed through both theory-based, closed-vocabulary methods from the social sciences as well as data-driven, open-vocabulary methods from computer science, but these approaches have not been comprehensively compared. To provide guidance on best practices for automatically analyzing written text, this narrative review and quantitative synthesis compares five predominant closed- and open-vocabulary methods: Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC), the General Inquirer, DICTION, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, and Differential Language Analysis. We compare the linguistic features associated with gender, age, and personality across the five methods using an existing dataset of Facebook status updates and self-reported survey data from 65,896 users. Results are fairly consistent across methods. The closed-vocabulary approaches efficiently summarize concepts and are helpful for understanding how people think, with LIWC2015 yielding the strongest, most parsimonious results. Open-vocabulary approaches reveal more specific and concrete patterns across a broad range of content domains, better address ambiguous word senses, and are less prone to misinterpretation, suggesting that they are well-suited for capturing the nuances of everyday psychological processes. We detail several errors that can occur in closed-vocabulary analyses, the impact of sample size, number of words per user and number of topics included in open-vocabulary analyses, and implications of different analytical decisions. We conclude with recommendations for researchers, advocating for a complementary approach that combines closed- and open-vocabulary methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Nonprofits: A Public Policy Tool for the Promotion of Community Subjective Well-being.

Looking to supplement common economic indicators, politicians and policymakers are increasingly interested in how to measure and improve the subjective well-being of communities. Theories about nonprofit organizations suggest that they represent a potential policy-amenable lever to increase community subjective well-being. Using longitudinal cross-lagged panel models with IRS and Twitter data, this study explores whether communities with higher numbers of nonprofits per capita exhibit greater subjective well-being in the form of more expressions of positive emotion, engagement, and relationships. We find associations, robust to sample bias concerns, between most types of nonprofit organizations and decreases in negative emotions, negative sentiments about relationships, and disengagement. We also find an association between nonprofit presence and the proportion of words tweeted in a county that indicate engagement. These findings contribute to our theoretical understanding of why nonprofit organizations matter for community-level outcomes and how they should be considered an important public policy lever.

The emotional and mental health impact of the murder of George Floyd on the US population.

On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, an unarmed Black American male, was killed by a White police officer. Footage of the murder was widely shared. We examined the psychological impact of Floyd's death using two population surveys that collected data before and after his death; one from Gallup (117,568 responses from n = 47,355) and one from the US Census (409,652 responses from n = 319,471). According to the Gallup data, in the week following Floyd's death, anger and sadness increased to unprecedented levels in the US population. During this period, more than a third of the US population reported these emotions. These increases were more pronounced for Black Americans, nearly half of whom reported these emotions. According to the US Census Household Pulse data, in the week following Floyd's death, depression and anxiety severity increased among Black Americans at significantly higher rates than that of White Americans. Our estimates suggest that this increase corresponds to an additional 900,000 Black Americans who would have screened positive for depression, associated with a burden of roughly 2.7 million to 6.3 million mentally unhealthy days.

Well-Being Depends on Social Comparison: Hierarchical Models of Twitter Language Suggest That Richer Neighbors Make You Less Happy.

Psychological research has shown that subjective well-being is sensitive to social comparison effects; individuals report decreased happiness when their neighbors earn more than they do. In this work, we use Twitter language to estimate the well-being of users, and model both individual and neighborhood income using hierarchical modeling across counties in the United States (US). We show that language-based estimates from a sample of 5.8 million Twitter users replicate results obtained from large-scale well-being surveys - relatively richer neighbors leads to lower well-being, even when controlling for absolute income. Furthermore, predicting individual-level happiness using hierarchical models (i.e., individuals within their communities) out-predicts standard baselines. We also explore language associated with relative income differences and find that individuals with lower income than their community tend to swear (f*ck, sh*t, b*tch), express anger (pissed, bullsh*t, wtf), hesitation (don't, anymore, idk, confused) and acts of social deviance (weed, blunt, drunk). These results suggest that social comparison robustly affects reported well-being, and that Twitter language analyses can be used to both measure these effects and shed light on their underlying psychological dynamics.

(Un)happiness and voting in U.S. presidential elections.

A rapidly growing literature has attempted to explain Donald Trump's success in the 2016 U.S. presidential election as a result of a wide variety of differences in individual characteristics, attitudes, and social processes. We propose that the economic and psychological processes previously established have in common that they generated or electorally capitalized on unhappiness in the electorate, which emerges as a powerful high-level predictor of the 2016 electoral outcome. Drawing on a large dataset covering over 2 million individual surveys, which we aggregated to the county level, we find that low levels of evaluative, experienced, and eudaemonic subjective well-being (SWB) are strongly predictive of Trump's victory, accounting for an extensive list of demographic, ideological, and socioeconomic covariates and robustness checks. County-level future life evaluation alone correlates with the Trump vote share over Republican baselines at r = -.78 in the raw data, a magnitude rarely seen in the social sciences. We show similar findings when examining the association between individual-level life satisfaction and Trump voting. Low levels of SWB also predict anti-incumbent voting at the 2012 election, both at the county and individual level. The findings suggest that SWB is a powerful high-level marker of (dis)content and that SWB should be routinely considered alongside economic explanations of electoral choice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).